The Probability Stack

A man decides to climb Mount Everest. He buys gear, books a guide, trains for months. When asked why, he says, "Because it's there." When asked about his odds of success, he shrugs. "I'll figure it out."

Here lies the central delusion of ambitious people: they confuse wanting something with having a viable path to get it. They mistake effort for strategy. And they wonder why their New Year's resolutions die by February.

The alternative is probability stacking: treating every goal as a calculated bet where small advantages compound into large ones. Few people will do this because it requires admitting that success is largely arithmetic, not heroism.