The Conviction Problem

How to Believe Your Own Ideas

In 1847, Ignaz Semmelweis noticed something strange in the obstetrics ward of Vienna General Hospital. Women who gave birth attended by doctors died of puerperal fever at three times the rate of women attended by midwives. He observed that doctors came directly from autopsy rooms to the delivery ward, and he had an idea: what if they were carrying something invisible on their hands?

He instituted a policy of handwashing with chlorinated lime solution. The mortality rate dropped from 18% to 2%. The numbers were undeniable. His colleagues rejected the theory anyway. The idea that gentlemen could have dirty hands was absurd. Germ theory did not exist yet. Semmelweis could not explain the mechanism, only point to the results. He grew increasingly frustrated, then desperate, then unhinged. He wrote angry letters. He called his critics murderers. In 1865, he was committed to an asylum where he died two weeks later, possibly beaten by guards.

Within a decade, Pasteur and Lister would vindicate him completely. But Semmelweis never saw his vindication.

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